
A HOME OF YOUR OWN
02. Need
Objectively Assessing Need
Any credible housing plan must be based on an independent and objective assessment of the current and expected future need for new homes. This must involve an assessment of the number of new homes required to meet existing unmet demand as well as an assessment of projected new household formation and population growth. Such an assessment should include a breakdown of the total volume of housing need by tenure including social, affordable rental, affordable purchase, private rental, and private purchase. It must also include an assessment of the number of homes for people with disabilities, for older people, and for Travellers.
The information must not only be available at the State-wide level. It must include breakdowns at Local Authority and Local Electoral Area and where possible District Electoral Division level. This will ensure that Governments housing targets, both for public and private homes, are based on need. It will ensure that Local Authority housing plans and strategies and the planning process are geared to match housing delivery with real housing need.
The Current Targets
In 2020, the Economic and Social Research Institute published a report on Regional Demographics and Structural Housing Demand. The report estimated that between 26,000 and 33,000 new homes would be required each year to meet population growth.
The report’s growth projects were based on the 2016 census. Importantly the reports terms of reference, set by the Department of Housing, did not include an examination and assessment of unmet housing need within the existing population. As a result, the 26,000 to 33,000 range has been challenged by independent academics, residential developers, and the Opposition in Leinster House.
An Alternative Assessment
In 2020, Sinn Féin argued that, as unmet social and affordable housing need was significantly underestimated by Government, at least 40,000 new homes would be required each year. Since 2020, Governments social and affordable housing targets, which were too low to begin with, were not met. Meanwhile economic growth and inward migration brought significant population growth.
As a result, Sinn Féin revised our own assessment of housing need to 50,000 new homes a year in 2023. This was in line with independent assessments from academics and industry. In June 2024, the Housing Commission published their report which included a critique of the Government housing targets. They argued that a decade of undersupply had created a housing deficit. The Commission estimated that this unmet need ranged between 212,500 to 256,000 homes.
They argued that this unmet housing need must be added to the Government’s baseline. Importantly they also argued that meeting this need must be front loaded in the short term. Achieving these recommendations would require on average 60,000 new homes a year over the next five years. The table below sets out the Housing Commission’s recommendations with the Government baseline targets in gold and the Commissions deficit target in green.
Chart 1: Indicative Profile of Housing Delivery 2024 to 2037

In July 2024, the ESRI updated their 2020 housing need assessment report. The terms of reference set for the report by the Department of Housing again did not include unmet pent-up demand. Their conclusion was that to meet structural demand created by demographic demand from 2024 to 2030 an annual average of 44,000 new homes would be required, dropping down to 40,000 from 2030 and 2040. This is only a marginal change from the implications of their 2020 report for the years from 2024 to 2030 and does not fundamentally alter the wider Housing Commission recommendations.
Meeting housing need from 2025 – 2029
Meeting the Housing Commissions overall assessment of need from 2025 to 3030 would require at least 300,000 new public and private homes over the lifetime of the next Government. Sinn Féin accepts this assessment and if in Government we would aim to deliver 300,000 new homes, through direct public housing delivery and better activation of private sector delivery. At least 125,000 of these must be public homes to meet social and affordable housing need, with an average of 15,000 social and 10,000 affordable homes delivered annually.
The remaining 175,000 homes would be delivered by the private sector. Government cannot control private sector output in the same way as it can with public sector output. However, Sinn Féin wants to see a rebalancing of private sector output in favour of homes for sale to owner occupiers. To achieve this, in Government, we would work with the private residential development sector to reduce the size of the private rental sector as a percentage of overall stock with the objective of delivering an annual average of 23,000 owner occupier homes, 7,000 private rental homes and 5,000 self-build homes. If achieved, this would mean a total of 25,000 self builds, 35,000 private rental and 115,000 owner occupier homes over five years.
The table below works on the assumption that a general election will be held either in late 2024 or early 2025.
Table 2: Sinn Féin’s Proposed Housing Provision 2025 to 2029
We believe this is both ambitious and deliverable. Chapter Three sets out how a Sinn Féin Government would deliver the most ambitious public housing programme in the history of the state. Chapter Four details how such a government would better activate the private residential sector to deliver a larger volume of good quality homes at fair prices.
Conclusion
The housing need estimates set out above are based on the most up to date information at the time of writing. However, these targets must be revised regularly and amended as new information becomes available, including levels of private sector output, demographic change, and economic conditions. This must be done independently of Government to ensure there is no political massaging of the level of need to then justify lower delivery targets.
Sinn Féin believes that a Housing Needs Demand Assessment group should be established involving the CSO, ESRI and the Housing Agency. They should be tasked with annually updating the overall housing need assessment data and the more detailed breakdowns by region, tenure, and typology to ensure that both central and local government and the wider development community can both plan and deliver homes based on need.
A Home of Your Own - Sinn Féin's Housing Plan
Sinn Féin has a plan to make housing affordable and to bring homeownership within reach of working people. Sinn Féin will transform housing in Ireland, from how we think and plan homes, the communities they are part of, to how we build homes. We will ensure that everyone has a home, their own front door.